Spring Enrollment: The second season has begun. Where will we land?
By March, to varying degrees, the enrollment story at most schools is coming into focus.
Contracts are coming in. Some families have reenrolled without hesitation. Others have signaled they are leaving. A few remain undecided, asking for time. While there is still a lot of meaningful work to be done before school opens anew in September, the broad trajectory can be visible by now—especially for schools that track historical reenrollment patterns and yield on new applicants with discipline.
This is the moment when clarity informs important decisions about what is financially possible and financially necessary.
And clarity, if embraced, changes the leadership conversation.
Yes, there are still reenrollments that will happen. Thoughtful conversations matter. Relationships matter. Occasionally, a family on the fence can be persuaded to stay. But if we are honest - as Heads and as enrollment leaders - most late February decisions are not impulsive. They have been forming for months.
The mistake many schools make is continuing to behave as if February is still a negotiation season. In reality, it is a pivot point.
By this time, you likely know your approximate attrition rate, where it is concentrated by grade, and how it compares to prior years. If you maintain reliable historical data, you can also model with reasonable confidence where net enrollment will land if current trends continue.
That projection should not sit quietly in the admissions office.
It should be shaping institutional planning.
If I am sitting with a Head of School in early March, I ask a simple question: “If nothing changes from here, where do we land?” That question is not meant to induce anxiety. It is meant to create alignment. The worst case scenario is not a softer year. The worst-case scenario is discovering a softer year too late to respond thoughtfully.
This is also the point when enrollment leadership must move even more significantly from reporting to forecasting. A grade by grade projection, showing reenrollment, attrition, historical yield, and likely landing scenarios becomes an essential management tool. It allows the Head and CFO to understand financial implications early enough to make adjustments in staffing, financial aid allocation, or marketing investment if necessary.
This is also a moment that separates exceptionally run schools from the pack. Top flight schools are not necessarily the ones with low single digit attrition and long waiting lists. The schools that separate themselves from others are the schools that play the hand their dealt and play it really well. They are the schools where heads, trustees, and administrative leaders embrace a collective can do/unwavering support for each other spirit that guides them through any enrollment uncertainty of the spring and summer.
There is another discipline required at this stage: knowing where to apply energy.
Some families who have not reenrolled are genuinely undecided and worth careful follow-up. Others, though silent, have already made their decision. Enrollment leaders often sense the difference. The challenge is resisting the urge to spend disproportionate time chasing outcomes that are unlikely to change.
Because March introduces a different opportunity.
Spring and summer enrollments are not merely extensions of the fall cycle. They are a distinct market. Families who surface in March, April, or May are often responding to change: a relocation, a professional shift, a disappointment in a current school, or a public option that did not materialize. These families are rarely browsing casually. They are searching with urgency.
Schools that treat spring as an afterthought miss this entirely. Schools that pivot early treat March through July as a second season with its own strategy, pace, and tone.
Practically speaking, this is the moment to:
Finalize grade-level capacity targets.
Clarify financial aid flexibility.
Audit response times and inquiry follow-up systems.
Ensure decision-making authority is clear and timely.
Align messaging around availability and urgency without sounding anxious.
Strategic thinking without operational adjustment accomplishes little. Operational effort without strategic clarity is exhausting. The strength of late February is that it offers both: enough data to think clearly and enough time to act decisively.
There is something steadying about accepting that February tells the truth. It allows leadership teams to stop negotiating with uncertainty and begin leading from it. Calm, early pivots almost always outperform reactive ones.
Late February is not the end of the enrollment story. But it is the end of guessing. And for schools willing to embrace that clarity, it marks the beginning of a far more disciplined and effective spring.
At 20 More Students, we are committed to helping remarkable schools face the future honestly and strategically. These are exactly the kinds of challenges we love to tackle. When you’re ready, I’d welcome the opportunity to connect. Until then, join the conversation by subscribing to 20 More.
