Competitor #4: Vouchers - Yes, the same vouchers that are supposedly an enrollment driver at many private schools

Voucher programs may initially appear to open new markets for independent schools, but from a financial-planning lens they introduce important risks. First, when families begin to view state voucher dollars as substitutive of tuition rather than additive, schools face greater pressure to hold prices flat or increase discounts — even though their underlying cost structure remains unchanged. Second, many children captured by voucher programs were not shifting from low-performing public schools into independent schools, but rather were already enrolled in private settings (or entering kindergarten) before public subsidy began. For example, in Florida’s universal voucher expansion, of 122,895 “new” recipients in 2023-24, 84,505 (≈ 69 %) had already been in private school, only 16,096 (≈ 13 %) came from public schools, and the balance entered kindergarten. 

The implication: instead of expanding system capacity by shifting public-school students, the program largely subsidizes existing private-school enrolments. This dynamic can lead to tuition inflation (as schools raise prices to capture voucher amounts), increase year-to-year enrollment volatility (since many families are opportunistic rather than mission-driven), and force independent schools to re-examine aid models and pricing strategies in light of a changing revenue source.