Vouchers/Universal School Choice Won’t Save Your Enrollment (And It Might Create New Risk)

Voucher programs/universal school choice is expanding faster than almost anyone predicted. Who knows where we will end up, but one thing is clear - we are in uncharted waters.

According to a recent Education Week analysis, voucher and Educational Savings Account use jumped from about 1 million students to 1.5 million in just 18 months. That is real momentum, and real money, entering the private school ecosystem.

But the early research tells a more complicated story.

Here’s what private school leaders should be paying attention to.

1. The uncomfortable financial question no one wants to ask: If voucher or ESA programs were scaled back, paused, or eliminated, would your families be willing (or able) to make up the difference?

2. Enrollment growth exists, but it’s modest: Private school enrollment is growing faster in universal choice states, but only by a few percentage points. Choice increases access, but it does not automatically create demand.

3. Much of the funding is stabilizing existing enrollments: A significant share of choice dollars is being used by families already enrolled in private schools. That can help retention and affordability, but it means many schools are not seeing meaningful net-new growth.

4. Academic impact data remains limited and mixed: Despite strong opinions on all sides, researchers simply don’t have enough consistent data yet to draw firm conclusions about academic outcomes. In many states, comparable assessments and reporting requirements don’t exist.

5. We are still in the early innings: Program design varies widely, implementation is uneven, and researchers are clear: it is far too soon to know the long term effects.

6. For schools that have priced tuition, built budgets, or expanded staffing around voucher/choice dollars, the financial exposure could be significant.

7. Vouchers/choice can stabilize revenue in the short term, but it can also create dependency if schools aren’t careful.

Here’s the hard truth: universal school choice may widen the door, but it does not guarantee sustainability. Schools best positioned for the future will be those that:

1. Can clearly articulate to their families a return on investment beyond price

2. Know why families choose them and what they’d sacrifice to stay

3. Treat choice dollars as supplemental, not foundational

Policy shifts come and go, but strong enrollment strategy endures.

At 20 More Students, this is the work we focus on - helping schools respond to market change with clarity, discipline, and long term thinking.

Are vouchers/education savings account affecting your enrollment revenue? If so, reach out anytime to continue the conversation about how to ensure sustainability.