Where have all the 9th grade applicants gone?

Where have all the 9th grade applicants gone?

If you’re asking yourself this question, you are not alone.

For many private schools, the decline in 9th grade applicants from tuition-capable families is not new, but it is becoming more acute with each passing year. This is especially true for PK-12 day schools in markets with soft or declining demographics, as well as 9-12 boarding schools that once relied on a deep and predictable applicant pool.

The problem shows up in many ways. One of the most damaging is when schools continue to build enrollment models based on what used to happen and what they still hope will happen, rather than on today’s reality. That kind of thinking is a recipe for trouble. At best, it’s optimistic. At worst, it’s wishful thinking that delays necessary action.

The larger challenge is this: redesigning enrollment models to reflect current realities requires making very hard choices. Schools understandably resist this kind of soul-searching. Independent schools have multiple bottom lines, and tough enrollment decisions almost always affect people, programs, positions, and long standing assumptions about how the school operates.

Complicating matters further is an uncomfortable truth: many schools do have 9th grade applicants. And many of those applicants are remarkable students who will go on to do meaningful things in the world. But an increasing number of them require significant financial investment at a time when institutional resources are already stretched thin.

At the same time, applicants from tuition capable families are being admitted to more highly selective schools than in years past, schools that may not have been realistic options even a decade ago. This shift has a direct impact on yield at schools that once depended on these same families to form the backbone of their 9th grade class.

So why is this trend becoming more problematic every year?

Here’s my take.

Once millennial families are firmly established in strong public school systems through 8th grade, their willingness to pay private school tuition often drops significantly. By that point, their lifestyles, housing choices, and financial commitments are structured in ways that make tuition, especially for high school, a non-starter.

In markets already facing demographic headwinds, this mindset collides with a shrinking population of school-aged children. Fewer families. Fewer prospects. Higher resistance to tuition. It’s a double whammy.

So, what’s the answer?

First, face the truth. There are no easy solutions. But continuing to hope for a return to “the way it used to be” only accelerates the path toward financial unsustainability. Enrollment models must be built on real historical data, data grounded in what the enrollment office is actually seeing, not what we wish were still true.

Second, adopt an enrollment-first mindset. That means the administration and the Board working together to prioritize strategic enrollment management above all else. This can be a hard pill to swallow in a profession where we want educational programming to be the highest priority and not openly intertwined with financial reality. But ignoring that connection doesn’t make it go away. It just makes the consequences more severe.

At 20 More Students, we are committed to helping remarkable schools face the future honestly and strategically. These are exactly the kinds of challenges we love to tackle.

When you’re ready, I’d welcome the opportunity to connect. Until then, join the conversation by subscribing to 20 More.